Before the Bell Aug 6

Tickers discussed: SPY QQQ IWM FB AAPL TSLA MSFT  AMZN  GOOGL NFLX

Before the Bell  is premarket prep for active traders. The note provides detailed stock market technical analysis focused on the indexes and FAAMGs. Key levels and trading locations are provided, along with trading plans and timely commentary to keep you on the right side of the trade.

Earnings 

 

Companion Video 

The video is a detailed technical review of the indexes and FATMAAN names. All the key trading levels are identified along with commentary and trade plans for each ticker. Trade ideas are also discussed.  Run the video at 1.25x to reduce run time.

Sorry ,but due to technical difficulties, no companion video this morning. 

Please refer to the static charts below for the active pivots

Macro Data Releases Week of Aug 2

  • Monday – Final MFG PMI, ISM MFG index, Construction Spending
  • Tuesday – Redbook, Factory Orders
  • Wednesday – ADP, PMI composite final, FOMC Clarida @ 10am,  ISM Services, Oil inventories at 10.30
  • Thursday – International Trade, Jobless Claims,  NatGas inventories
  • Friday – July Jobs Number

Will NFP’s pop Bond Yields?

THe 10yr bond yields continued to trade like a small cap biotech with almost daily rips and dips but with a bearish bias for at least a couple months. Yesterday yields popped and have found the high side of the downward channel.  The trend is lower but with NFP’s this morning, there could potentially a catalyst to pop rates out of the channel and open the door for a run to 1.3%.  Should this rate rise happen it will juice the cyclical / value sectors.

10 year Bond Yield

TLT

A break below the uptrend line, at say $148, would trigger a sell signal on TLT ( due to a rate rise in the 10yr bond ).  For me this would go a long way toward giving the all-clear for us to move more aggressively go into the value / cyclical sectors.

Signs of a Shift to Cyclicals

Rising Rate Environment Areas of Interest.

  • Falling Dollar is supportive of Commodities and cyclicals in general.
  • Rising Rates ( $TNX ) and / or a break of TLT $148
  • Cyclically focuses ETF’s to watch.:  XLB, XLE, XLF, XLI, KRE, IWM
    • Set alarms on the above EFTs for further confirmation of the move.
    • Traders can then drill down in specific sectors for invididual names if desired
  • Materials.  Commodity and Specialty Chemicals
  • Metals and Mining.  Copper, Aluminum, Steel, XME
  • Industrials. HON / MMM / GE  Infrastructure names
  • JETS / Airlines, Delivery services , marine transport, etc
  • KRE; Regional Banks…………more highly levered to rates than mega banks
  • Travels, Hotels, Cruise Lines re-opening names.

INDEX CHARTS

A detailed walk-through of the levels and trading strategy for the indexes is given in the video ( link above) . The static charts are provided for reference. The FATMAAN names are also reviewed in the video along with trade ideas and other charts of interest.

SPY 2 Hour

SPY 30 Min

QQQ 2 hour

QQQ 30 min

IWM 2 hour

IWM 30 min

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