Before the Bell Aug 2

Tickers discussed: SPY QQQ IWM FB AAPL TSLA MSFT  AMZN  GOOGL NFLX  SMH AMD  F  WMT

Before the Bell  is premarket prep for active traders. The note provides detailed stock market technical analysis focused on the indexes and FAAMGs. Key levels and trading locations are provided, along with trading plans and timely commentary to keep you on the right side of the trade.

Earnings 

 

Companion Video 

The video is a detailed technical review of the indexes and FATMAAN names. All the key trading levels are identified along with commentary and trade plans for each ticker. Trade ideas are also discussed.  Run the video at 1.25x to reduce run time.

Find the Video  HERE

 

Macro Data Releases Week of Aug 2

  • Monday – Final MFG PMI, ISM MFG index, Construction Spending
  • Tuesday – Redbook, Factory Orders
  • Wednesday – ADP, PMI composite final, FOMC Clarida @ 10am,  ISM Services, Oil inventories at 10.30
  • Thursday – International Trade, Jobless Claims, FOMC Waller  NatGas inventories
  • Friday – July Jobs Number

Breaking:  $SQ buys AfterPay for $29B.

AfterPay, as the name suggests, offers consumers a vehicle to Buy now, pay later while avoiding typical credit card fees. THe company loses money but that did not stop Jack Dorsey from paying top dollar for this real-estte grab in the space. Time will tell how it plays out. Given valuation it sets up as either a “visionary Purchase” or a boondoggle.

Signs of a Shift to Cyclicals

Rising Rate Environment Areas of Interest.

  • Falling Dollar is supportive of Commodities and cyclicals in general.
  • Rising Rates ( $TNX ) and / or a break of TLT $148
  • Cyclically focuses ETF’s to watch.:  XLB, XLE, XLF, XLI, KRE, IWM
    • Set alarms on the above EFTs for further confirmation of the move.
    • Traders can then drill down in specific sectors for invididual names if desired
  • Materials.  Commodity and Specialty Chemicals
  • Metals and Mining.  Copper, Aluminum, Steel, XME
  • Industrials. HON / MMM / GE  Infrastructure names
  • JETS / Airlines, Delivery services , marine transport, etc
  • KRE; Regional Banks…………more highly levered to rates than mega banks
  • Travels, Hotels, Cruise Lines re-opening names.

 

Chart Set Ups

$SMH Semi ETF Daily

After numerous headfake breakouts above $258, price now has taken out $262 which was the prior highs. THe long, wide consolidation promises $35 of upside if price can hold the breakout and the market remains constructive.  THis is a key Risk ON asset class. Will bode well for tech if it can emerge and start to run. LONG

AMD Hourly

Many in the group caught this power breakout in AMD. If price can take out the prior high at $106.84, those not already in the trade can shoot against that line w/ a stop below. Note that I have dropped in the Fibonacci extension targets if this continues its run. Typically you’ll get reaction pull backs in an around these levels if price decides it wants to extend the move. LONG

$F Ford Daily

I like this technical set up. Solid uptrend with price recapturing all the moving averages while at the low side of the rising channel.  A “simple” technical move to the topside of the channel puts this near $19. I think you can put a stop just below $13.50.  Not a particularly fast mover so if you’re targeting that move to the top of the channel, give yourself plenty of time.

$WMT – Walmart Daily

A break of $143.50 opens the door to $147.50. Fundamentally, a lot will depend in the coming months if Walmart can get slowly re-rated higher and given credit for the massive inroads it has made on the technology side as it relates to online ordering and next day delivery.

INDEX CHARTS

A detailed walk-through of the levels and trading strategy for the indexes is given in the video ( link above) . The static charts are provided for reference. The FATMAAN names are also reviewed in the video along with trade ideas and other charts of interest.

SPY 2 Hour

SPY 30 Min

QQQ 2 hour

QQQ 30 min

IWM 2 hour

IWM 30 min

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