Before the Bell April 7

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Before the Bell  is premarket prep for active traders. The note provides detailed stock market technical analysis focused on the indexes and FAAMGs. Key levels and trading locations are provided, along with trading plans and timely commentary to keep you on the right side of the trade.

Inspiration –  

Logic is regularly ignored by the markets. If it were you’d see lots of successful traders with PhD’s of which there are very few.



Companion Video  

The video is a detailed technical review of the indexes and FATMAAN names. All the key trading levels are identified along with commentary and trade plans for each ticker. Trade ideas are also discussed.  Run the video at  1.5x to maximize efficiency without loss of clarity.

Find the Companion Video HERE

Macro Data Releases Week of April 4

  • Monday – Factory Orders
  • Tuesday – Intl Trade #’s; PMI Composite; ISM Services; Multiple FOMC Speakers   Lael Brainerd speaks 11am.
  • Wednesday – Harker; Oil Inv; FOMC Minutes 2pm
  • Thursday – Bullard 9am; Jobless Claims; NatGas Inv; Evans 2pm and Williams 4pm FOMC
  • Friday – Wholesale inv preliminary; Rig Count

The FED’s Twin Bazooka

I will say it very clearly. The combination of aggressive rates hikes and balance sheet run-off are bearish for markets.  Markets thrive in times of ample liquidity and starve in times of low liquidity.  JPOW & Co. now have a singular mission to knock down inflation by the reverse wealth effect. These guys won’t stop until the market is down substantially. There will be lots of trades both bullish and bearish between now and then, but they’ve made themselves clear, they will insist on the market going down. THis will be the over-arching theme from now through the summer.

Bill Dudley Explains the Fed’s Dilemma

Former NY FOMC Governor explains the Fed’s dilemma as it faces inflation.  It’s a 6min Video that appeared on Bloomberg yesterday before the release of the FOMC minutes. It’s a very straightforward explanation of what is going on and what to expect as the Fed launches a rate hiking cycle combined with a run-off of the balance sheet.

Find the Video HERE

Re-Post …..Doomsday Proof your Trading Book 

FOMC Vice Chair in waiting Lael Brainerd who is known as a UBER dove in her philosophy, went aggressively hawkish at her 11am speech.  She signaled an especially aggressive Fed with a fast balance sheet run-off.  The last time they did QT it was $40B a month. But that was when the Fed Balance sheet was $4T. Now its $9T.    More evidence of the things we’ve been discussion for a least a couple months….namely that the FOMC is going to pull the plug on the liquidity pool.   Now they’re shedding light on how big the drain plug is…… .    We also thought the market would hold together through the end of Q1 which it did.   The challenge now is to Doomsday Proof our Trading Book.  I’ve been maintaining for a while that this will be the Golden Age of Long / Short Trading. That doesn’t make it easy but it does imply a lot of tactical trading.

Asset Classes and Sectors to look for Longs

  • All flavors of Commodities – OIL, NatGas, Grains, Base Metals
  • Commodity related Companies.   Energy, Agri Business etc   Energy Pipelines, MOO, DE, ADM, BG
  • Commodity- Centric Countries:  EWA, EWC, EWZ, ECH, EPU, GXG, EWW, ILF, ARGT
  • Fertilizer: CF, NTR, MOS, IPI
  • Lithium & Uranium
  • Precious Metals and Miners
  • Defensive  Trade Down for Consumers.   WMT, DG, DLTR
  • Grocers.   ACI, SFM, GO, KR
  • Defensive Pharma
  • Insurance Stocks
  • Quality Theme; Low Vol Theme

Asset Classes  and Sectors to either Avoid / Short. 

  • Ponzi / Bubble / Non-profitable stocks – ARK Complex
  • Zombie Companies –  Can’t service their debt is a rising rate environment;  Will take some fundamental Analysis to find them
  • Housing and Housing Related.
  • Retail & Restaurants
  • Stocks or Sectors that have already lost their February lows
  • High Beta

Bell Weather Tells

  • QQQ vs SPY relative performance
  • Defensive Sectors leading
  • Mega-cap tech.
  • Semi’s
  • Crypto
  • TSLA

Dont forget.  75% of a stocks direction is dictated by general market conditions


A detailed walk-through of the levels and trading strategy for the indexes is given in the video ( link above) . The static charts are provided for reference. The FATMAAN names are also reviewed in the video along with trade ideas and other charts of interest.

SPY Daily

SPY 2hr

SPY 30min

QQQ Daily

QQQ 2hr

QQQ 30 min

IWM Daily

IWM 2 hr

IWM 30 min


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