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Before the Bell is premarket prep for active traders. The note provides detailed stock market technical analysis focused on the indexes and FAAMGs. Key levels and trading locations are provided, along with trading plans and timely commentary to keep you on the right side of the trade.
Inspiration
Just as if you went on a long drive through unfamiliar surroundings, as you walk along your path toward becoming a better trader, keep your eyes and ears open and attentive. There will be lots of clues along the way designed to help you find your desired place. Dare I say, most trading services focus on feeding you trades. Sure I will send you ideas; some of which might even work. But in those other places you won’t get the sign posts I’ve posted above. Calming your mind is the hardest, most important, most intense work you can ever do. As you gain control the benefits will flow through your whole life, including trading. When I think about my failings in trading, and as I talk to traders who seek my help with their trading, its always the same thing that undercuts success. A failure to consistently execute a trading process. The chosen process does not even matter. There are probably 10,000 trading processes that will make money in the market…… pick a strategy that makes sense to you, stick with it, then spend every waking our focused on faithfully executing it. The fortitude, self-confidence, and poise comes when you can sit down knowing that you’re doing so with a calm mind and one that won’t succumb to base instincts like fear and greed. There is real power and sense of accomplishment with each step in that direction. Get Started!
Earnings
Earning season kicks off Wednesday with JPM, BLK, and DAL, followed up on Thursday with WFC, GS, and $C reporting along w/ some regional banks as well.
Companion Video
The video is a detailed technical review of the indexes and FATMAAN names. All the key trading levels are identified along with commentary and trade plans for each ticker. Trade ideas are also discussed. Run the video at 1.5x to maximize efficiency without loss of clarity.
Find the Companion Video HERE
Macro Data Releases Week of April 11
NOTE: Markets are closed April 15 for Good Friday
- Monday – Bostic / Williams / Evans / 3yr bond Auction 1pm
- Tuesday – NFIB Sentiment Index; CPI
- Wednesday – Mortgage Applications; PPI final; ATL FED inflation Expectations; Oil inventory
- Thursday – Jobless Claims; Retail Sales; Bus. Inv; Import / Export Prices; Consumer Sentiment; NatGas Inventory
- Friday – Market Closed
Macro Backdrop
The combination of aggressive rates hikes and balance sheet run-off are bearish for markets. Markets thrive in times of ample liquidity and starve in times of low liquidity. JPOW & Co. now have a singular mission to knock down inflation by the reverse wealth effect. These guys won’t stop until the market is down substantially. There will be lots of trades both bullish and bearish between now and then, but they’ve made themselves clear, they will insist on the market going down. This will be the over-arching theme from now through the summer.
Oscillator Update
After the recent move to overbought territory following the recent rally, now the oscillators are diving quickly toward oversold. When these oscillators reach minus 60, it will be a good idea to reduce any short exposure and lean to the long side.
Net New Highs
There was a regime shift in markets that began around Thanksgiving 2021. Note that ever since then, neither the NYSE nor NASDAQ have been able to generate any net new highs. Every time the net new highs approaches “escape velocity” the rips are being sold. Until we start seeing the NYSE generate net new highs over 100 and the NASDAQ get above zero, IMO we remain in a “Sell the Rip ” regime.
Retail Inventories Explode
Rush to close the “Driver Shortage”
Just look at the record number of new freight operators that have rushed in to solve the “driver shortage”
As Freight Volumes and Pricing Collapse
March Freight Volume fell off a cliff.
Trucking and Rails get the rug pulled
Both Trucking and the Rails find themselves at key spots as both groups were off over 5% this week. Trucking’s posture is a little worse than rails with its uptrend line already having been broken and with price perilously perched on support with a big void below. Traders can looking for specific set ups in the individual names. The Rails are still within the rising wedge but price is testing it. A break below 3313 would likely result in the next leg down toward 2900. Key names include CP / CNI / CSX / NSC / UNP
Developments in Uranium
Uranium continues in a nice uptrend as fundamentals shape up with the help of the Sprott Uranium Trust ( $SRUUF ) vacuuming up tons of inventory off the spot market. Recently Sprott moved to purchase URNM the North Shore Uranium Mining ETF. It will make the transition to the Sprott Mining ETF later in April. This should bring more exposure and interest to the ETF as Sprott has a good reputation in its other commodity focused ETFS. Below is a chart of URNM along with the holdings. It’s interesting to note that the URNM is also a big holder of the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust. Traders wanting exposure can either buy the ETF or look at the individual names listed.
INDEX CHARTS
Use the following pivots and levels in your active and swing trading. Added color is provided on the video. Link above.
SPY Daily
SPY 2hr
SPY 30min
QQQ Daily
QQQ 2hr
QQQ 30 min
IWM Daily
IWM 2 hr
IWM 30 min
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