Before the Bell Apr 4

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Before the Bell  is premarket prep for active traders. The note provides detailed stock market technical analysis focused on the indexes and FAAMGs. Key levels and trading locations are provided, along with trading plans and timely commentary to keep you on the right side of the trade.

Inspiration –  

When I approach my trading desk, one of the mental tricks I use to get me in the proper mindset is to project myself onto a trading desk of one of the Wall Street firms. If you authentically and whole heartedly “run the simulation” you should find yourself in a totally different head space. If you anticipate oversight by the Risk Manager, you won’t do stupid position sizes. If you expect the Floor manager to review your trades, you’ll have a trade plan to explain and defend them.  These are a whole series of things that fall into line when you adopt that mindset.


Companion Video  

The video is a detailed technical review of the indexes and FATMAAN names. All the key trading levels are identified along with commentary and trade plans for each ticker. Trade ideas are also discussed.  Run the video at  1.5x to maximize efficiency without loss of clarity.

Find the Companion Video HERE

Macro Data Releases Week of April 4

  • Monday – Factory Orders
  • Tuesday – Intl Trade #’s; PMI Composite; ISM Services; Multple FOMC Speakers
  • Wednesday – Harker; Oil Inv; FOMC Minutes 2pm
  • Thursday – Bullard 9am; Jobless Claims; NatGas Inv; Evans 2pm and Williams 4pm FOMC
  • Friday – Wholesale inv preliminary; Rig Count

Calm before the Storm?

Cant quite put my finger on it but something seems off with the picture. You know…when you hang a picture, you keep measuring and tweeking but it still does not look square.   Maybe its the VIX at 19.5 during a war. Maybe its the idea that we V-bottom and rocket higher in the face of a hostile FOMC.   I’m dealing with it by trusting the charts w/ the levels.   I have some shorts on the ARK complex that are currently hurting a little.  Most of my longs a resource related.   I think there maybe a drift into the FOMC minutes on Wednesday at 2pm.   While it seems quiet, let’s stay on our toes in case the powers at be decide to amp up the Vol.

Charts of Interest. 

Housing Related.

The XHB ETF captures many home -related names like $HD and $LOW, while $ITB isolates just the homebuilders. Both have fallen beneath their prior lows which is never a good thing technically speaking.


The Price relative below shows the KBW banking index vs SPY. You can see the ratio is breaking to new lows showing the underperformance of the banks vs SPY.   In the lower panel the KRE ETF is the Regional banking ETF.  Price just breaking below the 40week ema in green and the prior trading range that extends to $57.50.

Commodity-Centric Counties test OH Resistance

Places where you still dig stuff out the ground are rocking. Argentina, Australia, Canada, Colombia.  Not shown but certainly worthy of inspection   EWZ Brazil, EWW Mexico, ILF  Latin America 40,  ECH Chile,  EPU Peru.

Gold Miners

The door looks open for a run toward 44 whle price is above $39.  In the lower panel you can see the Gold Miners are out performing both Gold and the SPY.

Global Copper Miners attack ATH’s 

Alarm $48 on COPX ETF for a potential breakout to ATH’s. It’s interesting to note that this run has come while the price of copper has been in a multi- week consolidation.    Other names of interest: FCX, SCCO, TECK



A detailed walk-through of the levels and trading strategy for the indexes is given in the video ( link above) . The static charts are provided for reference. The FATMAAN names are also reviewed in the video along with trade ideas and other charts of interest.

SPY Daily

SPY 2hr

SPY 30min

QQQ Daily

QQQ 2hr

QQQ 30 min

IWM Daily

IWM 2 hr

IWM 30 min


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