Tickers: SPY QQQ IWM FB AAPL TSLA MSFT AMZN GOOGL NFLX SMH ARK Complex ITB XRT
Before the Bell is premarket prep for active traders. The note provides detailed stock market technical analysis focused on the indexes and FAAMGs. Key levels and trading locations are provided, along with trading plans and timely commentary to keep you on the right side of the trade.
Inspiration –
There are probably many people reading the word “mindfulness” roll their eyes and move along. For your benefit though, let’s dig a little deeper. For aspiring traders approaching markets, the feeling you’re seeking is “quiet confidence, fortitude, and poise”. It’s the same set of attributes you’d like your airline pilot to have. Conversely, if your flight crew becomes emotional basket cases in the face of a crisis, you’re probably dead. When you are on the right side of the trade and the market it does not take a whole lot of fortitude or poise. No, your inner core is only tested when you take left-right combos to your face and you wobble or even go down. I hope things are going well for you both inside and outside the markets. It wont always be that way. While things are going well, dedicate the time and energy to both “sharpen the saw” and “calm your mind” by whatever way works for you. Build that reservoir of fortitude and inner strength. When the shit hits the fan in either your trading life or your personal life, how you handle the situation will make all the difference and in my experience there wont be much time.
Earnings
Some interesting ones this week including. XPEV, ASO, LOVE, MU, LULU, RH, CHWY, FIVE, PAYX, PATH,
Companion Video
The video is a detailed technical review of the indexes and FATMAAN names. All the key trading levels are identified along with commentary and trade plans for each ticker. Trade ideas are also discussed. Run the video at 1.5x to maximize efficiency without loss of clarity.
Find the Companion Video HERE
Macro Data Releases Week of Mar 28
- Monday – Intl Trade, Retail & Wholesale inventories; Dallas FED MFG; 5yr note auction 1pm
- Tuesday – Case-Shiller Home Prices; FHFA Home prices; Cons. Confidence; JOLTS; 7yr Notes 1pm
- Wednesday – Mort Appls;ADP; GDP; oil inv
- Thursday – OPEC+ Meeting; Challenger Job Cuts; Jobless Claims; Personal income & outlays; Chicago PMI, NatGas report.
- Friday – March Jobs Report; PMI MFG final; ISM Mfg; Construction spending
FOMC Speakers scheduled everyday except Monday the 28th.
Jobs Friday
Today the FOMC will get an important data point with the March Job Report. We will get some insight into the FOMC’s thinking next Wednesday with the FOMC minutes. I think they’ve been pretty clear about wanting to front load the rate increases with the potential for back to back 50bps increases. The wild card is when they start. Will they hold off another 6 weeks or do they want to get going before then? I think if they do an intermeeting increase, they’ll do it within the next 2 weeks which would give them another 3-4 weeks before the May FOMC meeting. At any rate, Q1 is now in the books. Now we’ve got to mentally to prepare for added volatility. Below are some things I will be watching in the days and weeks ahead.
Snapshot of Market Keys for April
Watch the “Risk on” Asset Classes
- Crypto
- QQQ
- Housing ( ITB )
- Retail ( XRT )
- ARK Complex
Relative Performance Defensives vs Offensive
- XLP vs XLY
- XLU vs SPY
- XLV vs SPY
- QQQ vs SPY
- Hi Beta vs High Quality SPHB vs SPHQ
- Hi Beta vs Low Vol SPHB vs SPLV
FOMC
- Inflation Markers / Data Points
- FOMC minutes next Wednesday
- Potential of FOMC rate hike prior to May Meeting
- If they’re going to do this I’d expect it in the next 2 weeks
- The May meeting is early in the month
Theme Basket Performance
Key Option Strikes for todays Option Expiry.
Commodity Corner
The Agricultural report came out yesterday revealing what many suspected…… namely that the high cost of fertilizer would impact the planned planting patterns of farmers. Corn and Wheat require more fertilizer than Soybeans. Farmers plan to plant more soybeans and less corn and wheat. The chart below shows the price of corn spiking while Soybeans dropped. On the 2nd panel shows the 2022 performance of the various commodities.
INDEX CHARTS
A detailed walk-through of the levels and trading strategy for the indexes is given in the video ( link above) . The static charts are provided for reference. The FATMAAN names are also reviewed in the video along with trade ideas and other charts of interest.
SPY Daily
SPY 2hr
SPY 30min
QQQ Daily
QQQ 2hr
QQQ 30 min
IWM Daily
IWM 2 hr
IWM 30 min
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